If you’re thinking about downsizing, moving out of Multnomah County, or even moving out of Oregon right now, you’ve probably heard some version of this:

“The market is shifting.”

But what does that actually mean?

Because here’s the truth most people miss:

Real estate doesn’t crash randomly. It moves in cycles.

And if you understand those cycles, you stop reacting emotionally… and start making smarter decisions.

The 4 Phases of a Real Estate Market Cycle

Every housing market, whether it’s here in Clackamas County or across the country, moves through four predictable phases:

1. Recovery

This is where things start to stabilize after a downturn.

• Prices have already dropped

• Inventory is still relatively high

• Buyers are cautious

• Sellers are realistic (or becoming realistic)

Opportunity: This is where smart buyers quietly make moves before competition heats up.

2. Expansion (Growth)

This is what most people think of as a “good market.”

• Prices are rising

• Inventory tightens

• Buyer demand increases

• Confidence returns

This is when momentum builds.
Homes sell faster. Multiple offers start showing up again.

3. Peak

This is where things feel… a little crazy.

• Prices are at or near their highest

• Inventory is extremely low

• Buyers are competing aggressively

• Emotions often override logic

Sound familiar? This is what we saw in 2020–2021.

Important: The peak is only obvious in hindsight.

4. Contraction (Shift)

This is the phase we’re in right now in many areas.

• Inventory increases

• Buyers regain leverage

• Days on market go up

• Price reductions become more common

This is where the headlines get loud.

But here’s the key:

👉 A shifting market is not a bad market.
👉 It’s a rebalancing.

Where Are We Right Now?

In areas like Clackamas County, we’re seeing a clear transition out of peak conditions into a more balanced market.

That looks like:

• Homes still selling… but not instantly

• Pricing matters more than ever

• Buyers being more selective

• Sellers needing strategy (not just luck)

The frenzy is gone. The opportunity is not.

What This Means for You

Here’s where most people get stuck, they try to time the market perfectly.

That’s a mistake.

Instead, focus on how to use the current phase to your advantage:

If You’re a Buyer:

• You have more negotiating power than you did a few years ago

• Inspections and contingencies are back on the table

• You can actually take a breath before making a decision

This is where smart buyers win.

If You’re a Seller:

• You can still sell, but you have to be strategic

• Pricing correctly is everything

• Presentation and marketing matter more now than ever

The days of “just list it and wait” are over.

The Big Takeaway

Here’s the simple version:

Markets don’t stay hot forever.
Markets don’t stay slow forever either.

They move.

They cycle.

And the people who understand that?

They don’t panic when things shift…
They position themselves to win in any phase.

Let’s Make This Practical

If you’re thinking about downsizing, moving out of Multnomah County, or even moving out of Oregon right now, the real question isn’t:

“Is it a good market?”

It’s this:

👉 How does this market work in my favor right now?

Because the answer to that question is what actually saves (or makes) you money.

If you want a breakdown of what phase your specific neighborhood is in, not just the headlines,  I can walk you through it.

Just reach out.

You can always, call, text or email me OR.....

Contact me through the website I know the market and how to win whether you are living in Portland and looking to get out farther into Clackamas County or maybe even get out of the state. 

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